With a striking blend of visual effects and state-of-the-art motion capture technology, 鈥淎vatar: The Way of Water鈥� is billed as a movie-theatre experience unlike any other in the last few years, but it鈥檚 by far James Cameron鈥檚 biggest risk yet, industry analysts say.
Disney鈥檚 second film in a projected five-part saga opens across North America this weekend to massive expectations. Can it draw enough audiences to make up for its budget, reported to be more than $250 million? And will the sequel eventually rival the $2.9-billion total gross of the original film, released in 2009?
Whether the Ontario-born filmmaker, who now lives in New Zealand, can pull off another theatrical success story depends on several factors, observers say: how the film鈥檚 use of underwater performance capture and 3D technology will translate to profits under the current theatrical model, whether it鈥檚 going to become a must-see sensation, and if it can buck the media trend that鈥檚 beginning to prioritize streaming in a pandemic age.
鈥溾�楢vatar: the Way of Water鈥� is poised for a 鈥楾itanic鈥�-sized debut,鈥� said Paul Dergarabedian, a senior Comscore media analyst, referring to the filmmaker鈥檚 1997 movie that brought in about $28 million in its first weekend and went on to make $2.2 billion in ticket sales.
鈥淛ames Cameron鈥檚 films have always benefited from long-term success and playability rather than a huge pop on opening weekend.鈥�
Dergarabedian added that with some ticket sales also being purchased for premium formats that include 3D and IMAX, the film benefits from more revenue-generating power.
Overall, Dergarabedian views it as unwise to underestimate the power of the film to overcome future obstacles.
In Cameron鈥檚 hands, the first 鈥淎vatar,鈥� a fantasy epic about a paraplegic marine torn between Earth and an alien world of sapient humanoids from a planet called Pandora, propelled the popularity of 3D viewing and motion capture technology when it was still novel.
In 鈥淭he Way of Water,鈥� the marine-turned-alien Jake Sully (Sam Worthington) and his blue-skinned counterpart Neytiri (Zoe Salda帽a) have become parents to three children who fight against human invaders.
Cameron has said he mined his own experience as a father for the film, which introduces viewers to the next generation of young cast members.
One of those new characters in the franchise is played by actor Bailey Bass, now 19, who was six when 鈥淎vatar鈥� was released and 12 when she auditioned for the next three films.
Bass plays Tsireya, the daughter of the Metkayina leaders 鈥� a group of water-based humanoids that befriends the Sully family.
Bass believes that the broad appeal of Avatar 2 to fresh generations will partly come from 鈥淔OMO鈥� 鈥� a fear of missing out鈥� and the desire to take part in the popular event of the moment.
鈥淚t鈥檚 the fact that you have to go into theatres, see this film, and its glory will bring you back to looking at someone and just being like, 鈥榟ey, did you see that movie?鈥濃�� Bass said during an in-person interview in Toronto. 鈥淟ike that urgency and just the community of loving a film. I think because of streaming, we haven鈥檛 really experienced that in the same way we did when Blockbuster was a thing.鈥�
Aside from Avatar鈥檚 franchise aspirations, Cameron鈥檚 use of 3D motion capture technology remains the main selling point of the new film.
His use of a 48-frames-per-second, which is twice the standard, gives images a smoother and more realistic sheen as as the characters鈥� bodies move through digital landscapes and take part in action scenes..
Steve Levitan, a media lawyer, film producer and instructor at Toronto Metropolitan University, isn鈥檛 entirely convinced that 鈥淭he Way of Water鈥� can bank as big of an audience off of this technology however, suggesting it鈥檚 something audiences will feel they鈥檝e seen before.
鈥淲e鈥檙e in an era of VR and advanced AI. 鈥楢vatar鈥� did all of that just as YouTube was hitting its stride, let alone Netflix and streaming,鈥� said Levitan.
鈥淎 large part of the viewership and attraction to Avatar was a 3D (experience) like you鈥檝e never seen before, and I don鈥檛 know, did you go out and buy a 3D television? I hope you didn鈥檛.鈥�
The film鈥檚 reviews hover above 80 per cent on Rotten Tomatoes, and Cameron鈥檚 technical bona fides and attention to detail are already being heavily celebrated over the more mixed critiques of the film鈥檚 core story elements.
Levitan feels the plot of the first 鈥淎vatar鈥� was largely forgettable and did not possess much of a cultural footprint 鈥� unlike Cameron鈥檚 鈥淎lien, and 鈥淭erminator鈥� franchises.
鈥淲ill it be a more enjoyable movie? Will it be something people talk about and can鈥檛 forget?鈥� said Levitan. 鈥淚f you asked me the names of the main characters in the original 鈥楢vatar,鈥� I couldn鈥檛 tell you.鈥�
Irene S. Berkowitz, a media researcher and instructor at Toronto Metropolitan University, believes an industry in flux that鈥檚 experienced additional challenges throughout the pandemic won鈥檛 do 鈥淭he Way of Water鈥� any favours either.
鈥淭he shift to streaming wasn鈥檛 triggered by the pandemic; the pandemic accelerated what was already happening by a decade,鈥� said Berkowitz. 鈥淲hile ticket prices skyrocketed, attendance plummeted, and 500 screens closed since the pandemic.鈥�
Furthermore, Berkowitz adds that it鈥檚 a lot to ask today鈥檚 viewers to sit through three hours and 12 minutes of the film in today鈥檚 climate of options, much less return for a second or third ride.
鈥淓xcept for young teens who would do anything to escape home, most of us prefer not to watch content on someone else鈥檚 deadline,鈥� said Berkowitz. 鈥淚t鈥檚 mostly generational 鈥� location-based entertainment experiences are declining.鈥�
Regardless of the obstacles the film is facing, Cameron has a historically proven track record in defying the odds at the box-office.
鈥淚t should be interesting to see what happens, whether $2 billion-plus can be made on a $300 to $400-million budget,鈥� adds Berkowitz. 鈥淓ven if so, few other films can keep that trend going.鈥�
鈥擭oel Ransome, The Canadian Press
