When the last drop 鈥� or gallon 鈥� of blood is shed and an exultant victor has ascended to the Iron Throne, viewers may be split over how HBO鈥檚 fantasy saga ended but they鈥檒l be joined in deprivation.
鈥淲hat do you do without 鈥楪ame of Thrones?鈥欌�� will be the lament heard after the May 19 finale, said media analyst Larry Gerbrandt. The question is even more critical to the pay-cable channel, which soared on dragon鈥檚 wings with its hugely popular, eight-season adaptation of George R.R. Martin鈥檚 novels.
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Keeping subscribers on board means more than another hit, even one as globally dazzling as 鈥淕ame of Thrones鈥� proved to be. But it鈥檚 where HBO can start to protect its brand and position, observers say, an effort both demanded and compounded by an increasingly congested small-screen landscape and the expectations of the channel鈥檚 corporate owner since 2016, AT&T.
鈥淚 think they need a prestige show on this level to remain HBO,鈥� Bill Carter, a media analyst for CNN and former reporter for The New York Times. But 鈥渕ore than ever, it鈥檚 really hard to find a hit show and to break through in this marketplace.鈥�
The channel is well into the hunt for a worthy successor, with one possibility an untitled prequel to 鈥淕ame of Thrones鈥� created by Martin and Jane Goldman and starring Naomi Watts. Set to begin shooting a pilot in June, it鈥檚 among several potential 鈥淭hrones鈥� spinoffs being weighed, with discussions at HBO about 鈥渉ow many is too many,鈥� said programming chief Casey Bloys.
鈥淲e have high hopes鈥� for the pilot, he said. 鈥淏ut I want to be clear, nobody is going into this thinking that we鈥檙e going to do a prequel and all of a sudden everybody who automatically watched 鈥楪ame of Thrones鈥� is going to watch this. 鈥� It鈥檒l have a different feel and different rhythm. We鈥檙e not trying to do the same show again.鈥�
That begs the question of what more HBO has to offer, he said. During a period in which 鈥淕ame of Thrones鈥� was off the air for scheduling reasons, series including 鈥淲estworld,鈥� 鈥漇harp Objects鈥� and 鈥淏arry鈥� proved strong draws, Bloys said.
鈥淚鈥檓 not going to argue that we won鈥檛 miss 鈥楪ame of Thrones.鈥� It鈥檚 been a fantastic show for us, but life does go on,鈥� he said. He points to a deep bench of returnees, including Nicole Kidman and Reese Witherspoon鈥檚 鈥淏ig Little Lies,鈥� and newcomers including the graphic novel-based 鈥淲atchmen鈥� from 鈥淟ost鈥� producer Damon Lindelof. One marquee series that鈥檚 also in its final season: the much-admired comedy 鈥淰eep,鈥� with Julia Louis-Dreyfus.
HBO, which launched in 1972 and whose cachet has long justified the boastful slogan, 鈥淚t鈥檚 not TV. It鈥檚 HBO,鈥� has reached this crossroads before. At the turn of the century, pop-culture sensations 鈥淭he Sopranos鈥� and 鈥淪ex and the City鈥� boosted the channel鈥檚 visibility and subscribers and made it a serious player for prestige awards 鈥� including cable鈥檚 first-ever Emmys for best drama and comedy series. After the shows wrapped, the channel moved nimbly on with audience-pleasers including 鈥淪ix Feet Under鈥� and 鈥淭rue Blood.鈥�
But that was then, and this is the time of streaming 鈥� or, in shorthand, Netflix, along with a growing host of others including Amazon and Hulu 鈥� and a shoulder-bumping rush for stars and showmakers to churn out more and more fare for outlets already awash in programming.
HBO, no longer a singular alternative to staid broadcast networks, also got new corporate ownership when AT&T bought its parent company, Time Warner. HBO recently saw the exit of its chief executive, Richard Plepler, who had been with the channel for nearly 30 years and guided it to 鈥淕ame of Thrones鈥� glory.
With AT&T鈥檚 resources, HBO has stepped up production and will see a 50% increase in the number of original program hours this year, Bloys said, arguing that volume doesn鈥檛 preclude high quality: 鈥淭here鈥檚 nothing in 2019 that we鈥檙e putting on the air because we鈥檙e trying to hit an hour count. 鈥� We haven鈥檛 lowered any of our standards to reach a certain level of programming鈥� and there is no pressure to do otherwise from WarnerMedia CEO John Stankey, he said.
Subscribers ultimately will decide whether they think the shows are what they want. But expanding the pipeline is unavoidable, said Tuna Amobi, a media and entertainment analyst with investment firm CFRA.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a very different competitive landscape for HBO than it was when they launched 鈥楪ame of Thrones,鈥� and they realize that. That鈥檚 why you see them ratcheting up their investments in their programming,鈥� Amobi said. Also key is how HBO鈥檚 online platform is integrated with planned WarnerMedia streaming offerings to reach the broadest audience possible and make full use of its content, he added.
HBO 鈥渃annot rely on the old ways of doing things and hope that being a premium channel will bail you out,鈥� he said.
鈥淕ame of Thrones,鈥� which debuted in 2011, has flourished despite the confounding number of small-screen choices. From its first-season average weekly tally of 9.3 million cumulative viewers, the series rose to a seventh-season high of 32.8 million across all HBO platforms, including the channel itself and streaming services HBO Go and HBO Now and over a period extending 30 days beyond the season鈥檚 end.
It benefited from the devoted following for Martin鈥檚 鈥淎 Song of Ice and Fire鈥� clutch of novels. It was richly and painstakingly produced, filmed in 10 countries including Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, Morocco, Iceland and Canada. Its appealing cast became household names, and the female characters that grew in stature and strength as the drama unfolded are routinely namechecked as part of the female-empowerment zeitgeist.
鈥淕ame of Thrones鈥� could boast of its Emmy dominance as well, with 47 trophies to date including three best drama series awards. Last year, it denied a second consecutive win to a worthy opponent, Hulu鈥檚 鈥淭he Handmaid鈥檚 Tale,鈥� but HBO itself lost valuable Emmy bragging rights: It was surpassed in total nominations for the first time in 17 years and by relative newcomer Netflix, and the streamer tied HBO in wins.
Analyst Gerbrandt, of Media Valuation Partners, isn鈥檛 counting the channel out. Many viewers still like so-called 鈥渃urated鈥� TV delivered to them, as opposed to searching online through dozens or hundreds of offerings, he said. There鈥檚 also the power of perception at work.
鈥淚f there鈥檚 a brand that survives strictly on name, it鈥檚 probably HBO,鈥� he said.
Lynn Elber, The Associated Press
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