Ahead of the , Associated Press Film Writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle share their predictions for a ceremony with much still up in the air.
BEST PICTURE
The Nominees: 鈥淏elfast鈥�; 鈥淐ODA鈥�; ; 鈥淒rive My Car鈥�; ; 鈥淜ing Richard鈥�; 鈥淟icorice Pizza鈥�; 鈥淣ightmare Alley鈥�; 鈥淭he Power of the Dog鈥�; 鈥淲est Side Story.鈥�
BAHR: At this point it really feels like the It is paradoxically both a safe choice and a game changer in that it would be a first best picture win for Netflix after years of trying. Jane Campion鈥檚 last major shot at picture (and director) was with 鈥淭he Piano,鈥� but in 1994 that basically stood no chance against 鈥淪chindler鈥檚 List.鈥� This time, it鈥檚 her film that has the leg up on the Spielberg. And yet there is a possibility that 鈥淐ODA鈥� could 鈥淟ittle Miss Sunshine鈥�/鈥滸reen Book鈥� its way in there as the feel-good alternative 鈥� which was what 鈥淏elfast鈥� was supposed to be. (Since this article was first published, the chances for 鈥淐ODA鈥� improved after winning
COYLE: I鈥檓 . The smart money is on Campion鈥檚 film. But the win for 鈥淐ODA鈥� at the Screen Actors Guild 鈥� where 鈥淭he Power of the Dog鈥� failed to get nominated for best ensemble 鈥� suggests strong passion for the film, and maybe a crowd-pleasing advantage on the academy鈥檚 preferential ballot. Either film, though, . It would hand a streaming service 鈥� Netflix or Apple 鈥� Hollywood鈥檚 most prestigious honor for the first time. Maybe that鈥檚 a big deal, maybe it鈥檚 belated confirmation of what everyone has known for some time.
BEST ACTRESS
The Nominees: Jessica Chastain, 鈥淭he Eyes of Tammy Faye鈥�; Olivia Colman, 鈥淭he Lost Daughter鈥�; Pen茅lope Cruz, 鈥淧arallel Mothers鈥�; Nicole Kidman, 鈥淏eing the Ricardos鈥�; Kristen Stewart, 鈥淪pencer.鈥�
COYLE: This has been the cruelest of categories, laying waste to most expectations and some very sensational performances. Lady Gaga, Caitr铆ona Balfe, Jennifer Hudson and my favorite performance of the year 鈥� Renate Reinsve (鈥淭he Worst Person in the World鈥�) 鈥� are just some of the masses among the snubbed. Yet, surprisingly, a very Oscar bait-y performance from a movie released early in the season 鈥� 鈥� has moved to favorite status after winning the SAG Awards. That may partly be because Chastain, a three-time nominee but never a winner, is one of Hollywood鈥檚 best actors and the time has come to honor her, for a film she steered into existence. I think she鈥檒l win, but 鈥� could sneak in for her second Academy Award.
BAHR: Chastain should have already won several Oscars at this point, and not even necessarily for the ones she got nominations for (鈥淭he Help鈥� and 鈥淶ero Dark Thirty鈥�). However improbable for a movie that has some big issues, including the way it turns a blind eye to Tammy Faye鈥檚 complicities in the scam, the tide has shifted in her favor and she鈥檒l probably get her win. Still, I still think there鈥檚 a small possibility that it will go to after starting the season at the top.
BEST ACTOR
The Nominees: Javier Bardem, 鈥淏eing the Ricardos鈥�; Benedict Cumberbatch, 鈥淭he Power of the Dog鈥�; Andrew Garfield, 鈥渢ick, tick 鈥� Boom!鈥�; ; Will Smith, 鈥淜ing Richard.
BAHR: It鈥檚 always a bit of a snooze when categories are locked for months, but it would be a After a period of giving some possibly TMI interviews, Smith stepped back from the spotlight, let the race play out and still emerged triumphant. Not only did he give a terrific performance in the film, but his to his co-star Aunjanue Ellis and subjects Venus and Serena Williams, was also a helpful reminder of the power of his star charisma. This is such a safe, respectable batch, though. It may have been fun to add some Simon Rex (for 鈥淩ed Rocket鈥�) chaos to the mix.
COYLE: Smith will over-share his way to the Oscar, a deserved win for one of the movies鈥� most insanely charming stars. Smith might have already won best actor (for 鈥淎li鈥�) if not for Denzel鈥檚 titanic performance that year in 鈥淭raining Day.鈥� This time, it鈥檚 Smith鈥檚 turn. If I could add someone here, it鈥檇 be Adam Driver in 鈥淎nnette.鈥� If he can鈥檛 have best actor, then he should surely take the award for most devastating and fiercely committed singing performance opposite a puppet baby. Wait, I鈥檓 being told that isn鈥檛 an Oscar category.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees: Jessie Buckley, 鈥淭he Lost Daughter鈥�; Ariana DeBose, 鈥淲est Side Story鈥�; Judi Dench, 鈥淏elfast鈥�; Kirsten Dunst, 鈥淭he Power of the Dog鈥�; Aunjanue Ellis, 鈥淜ing Richard.鈥�
COYLE: Thanks to her , and it鈥檚 hard not to be moved by the historical symmetry. Sixty years ago, Rita Moreno won for the same role, Anita, in 1961鈥檚 鈥淲est Side Story,鈥� making her the first Latina to win an Oscar. We鈥檒l have to see if DeBose is as brief as Moreno was accepting her award. (Her total speech: 鈥淚 can鈥檛 believe it! Good Lord! I leave you with that.鈥�) Still, it was a crime to neglect Kathryn Hunter鈥檚 multiplying witches in 鈥淢acbeth.鈥� What鈥檚 foul isn鈥檛 always fair.
BAHR: I was prepared for Kirsten Dunst to finally get her moment up on that podium but . At least she broke the seal and got a nomination. And DeBose should definitely be ready with a killer speech. Do you think she鈥檒l take Moreno as her date? Maybe she鈥檒l don the black and gold dress Moreno wore in 1962 and famously repeated in 2018.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees: ; Troy Kotsur, 鈥淐ODA鈥�; Jesse Plemons, 鈥淭he Power of the Dog鈥�; J.K. Simmons, 鈥淏eing the Ricardos鈥�; Kodi Smit-McPhee, 鈥淭he Power of the Dog.鈥�
BAHR: Among mostly first-time nominees (save for J.K. Simmons, who previously won for 鈥淲hiplash鈥�), 鈥淐ODA鈥檚鈥� , winning at SAG, BAFTAs and Critics Choice and he鈥檚 likely to continue that streak come Oscar Sunday. The support for Kotsur and 鈥淐ODA鈥� has only become more enthusiastic recently and it would be a history-making win. The 53-year-old is the first deaf man to have ever been nominated for an acting prize. I鈥檇 also liked to have seen Colman Domingo get some more widespread praise for 鈥淶ola,鈥� or Mike Faist for 鈥淲est Side Story.鈥�
COYLE: It鈥檚 a very likeable group of performers but Kotsur has this one in the bag. I think it will be one of the night鈥檚 best moments, not just because of the historic nature of Kotsur鈥檚 win, but because it鈥檚 just reward for an actor who has long toiled and thrived on Los Angeles stages. Hinds was, though, fabulous in 鈥淏elfast鈥� and the unnominated Richard Jenkins in 鈥淭he Humans鈥� was also about as good as it gets.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees: Kenneth Branagh, 鈥淏elfast鈥�; Ry没suke Hamaguchi, 鈥淒rive My Car鈥�; Paul Thomas Anderson, 鈥淟icorice Pizza鈥�; Jane Campion, 鈥淭he Power of the Dog鈥�; Steven Spielberg, 鈥淲est Side Story.鈥�
COYLE: Campion has long been the frontrunner. For the trailblazing filmmaker, who nearly three decades ago became only the second woman nominated in this category, it鈥檚 a coronation long in coming. Campion, the first woman ever to be twice nominated for best director, will win, and her cinematographer, , will become the first woman to win that award 鈥� a triumph that should have happened long ago for women behind the camera.
BAHR: Yes, but will she thank Sam Elliott?
DOCUMENTARY
The Nominees: 鈥淎scension鈥�; 鈥淎ttica鈥�; 鈥淔lee鈥�; 鈥淪ummer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)鈥�; 鈥淲riting With Fire.鈥�
BAHR: Though Questlove is much-beloved by the Academy and his documentary , 鈥淔lee鈥� likely has the advantage here since it was also nominated in the animated feature category. Also, while 鈥淎ttica鈥� director Stanley Nelson won the Directors Guild award, that group is narrower than the Academy鈥檚 voting body.
COYLE: To quote the Roots, Questlove鈥檚 Oscar has 鈥済ot to be, got to be reality.鈥� Don鈥檛 get me wrong, , and this could indeed be close. But 鈥淪ummer of Soul鈥� might be the most universally adored film of the year. Both its uncovering of a lost Black history and its celebration of live performance were so profoundly suited to 2021. I can鈥檛 see it not winning.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
The Nominees: 鈥淒rive My Car,鈥� Japan; 鈥淔lee,鈥� Denmark; 鈥淭he Hand of God,鈥� Italy; 鈥淟unana: A Yak in the Classroom,鈥� Bhutan; 鈥淭he Worst Person in the World,鈥� Norway.
COYLE: Ry没suke Hamaguchi鈥檚 , which makes it a heavyweight in this category. There鈥檚 stiff competition here 鈥� particularly from But Hamaguchi鈥檚 three-hour masterwork 鈥� a profound movie about art and dialogue as a means of human connection 鈥� should win.
BAHR: 鈥淒rive My Car鈥� definitely has the advantage. The picture and director nominations probably helped convince a few more voting members to give it a chance, too. It鈥檚 hard not to wonder just how far it could have gone had it had the awards campaign budgets of some of its best picture brethren.
ANIMATED FEATURE
The Nominees: 鈥淓ncanto鈥�; 鈥淔lee鈥�; 鈥淟uca鈥�; 鈥淭he Mitchells vs. the Machines鈥�; 鈥淩aya and the Last Dragon.鈥�
BAHR: 鈥淓ncanto鈥� is certainly the juggernaut in this category, with the triple threat of Disney, Lin-Manuel Miranda and a massive hit song that . And under normal circumstances it鈥檇 be the easy frontrunner, but Disney has not had a good few weeks not to mention the fact that the studio has three nominations in the category which could split votes. Plus, there is massive industry goodwill for 鈥淭he Mitchells vs the Machines鈥� and it won the Annie award, which is why I think there may be a (good) upset in store.
COYLE: I think 鈥淭he Mitchells vs the Machines鈥� pulls it off. , but it鈥檚 a funny kind of juggernaut. The Disney release didn鈥檛 make a huge impression in theaters but once it hit streaming, its songs turned it into a sensation. Some voters may feel 鈥淓ncanto鈥� is great for the music, while . I think so, anyway. So come on, academy. Do it for Monchi the pug.
鈥擫indsey Bahr And Jake Coyle, The Associated Press
