As the provincial election approaches, its outcome is far from certain, says an analyst.

A Research Co poll released July 30 shows the provincial Conservatives under John Rustad within three points of the governing New Democrats under Premier David Eby. Stewart Prest, who teaches political science at the University of British Columbia, sees the closing gap between the two parties as evidence of a "two-horse race" with the outcome far from certain. 

"Where the NDP seem to be coasting toward victory at the start of the year, they now have a genuine fight on their hands," Prest said. "This is a genuine race and the NDP is going to have to get out there and make the case for the election. I think they (New Democrats) are still positioned to win if they do that effectively, but it is not a foregone conclusion at this point." 

Conservatives, meanwhile, have been trending in the opposite direction with four incumbent B.C. United MLAs (Bruce Banman, Lorne Doerkson, Elenore Sturko and Teresa Wat) having joined the party under the leadership Rustad, who himself was kicked out of the party when it was still known as the B.C. Liberals. That party has also been picking up strong candidates such as Yuri Fulmer, a leading entrepreneur in B.C. and global philanthropist.

The party's most recent victory was Wat's decision to switch sides, giving the party an experienced voice on issues that matter to more socially conservative voters. 

"They (Conservatives) were a fringe party a year ago and now they are anything but and it's because of moves like this," Prest said. 

Looming behind the current state of the race is a question about the NDP's decision-making in the fall of 2022 when Eby replaced former premier John Horgan as party leader and premier with almost two years left in the party's governing mandate.

"I鈥檓 ready to get to work with my team to deliver results that people will be able to see and feel in their lives and in their communities,鈥� Eby said in becoming premier in November 2022. 

Prest said he continues to read Eby as someone who is interested in using the levers of powers to try to advance a political agenda for as long as possible.

"He wanted to have that apprenticeship, as you call it, that he wanted to show British Columbians this is what he was wanting to do. So we see much more aggressive policy on housing."

Prest said he too thinks B.C. needed more aggressive policies around housing.

"But these are long-term challenges and they are not quick fixes," he said. "So in that sense, it ends up being a gamble and we still don't know if it will play out because he is asking now for re-election based on policies that have not had time to really bear fruit."

Time, meanwhile, appears to be working in favour of the opposition, specifically the provincial Conservatives, who won the primary for the main opposition party against B.C. United. By holding the election on the regularly scheduled date, New Democrats have given the opposition time to organize around a single alternative.

"So in that sense...they (New Democrats) have created that opportunity by not rolling the dice on an early election."

But an early election could have "backfired" too, he added. 

Other factors also help explain the current state of the race. For one, the current political climate generally disadvantages incumbent governments. Previous polls showing the NDP comfortably ahead of their then-divided opposition might have also hidden existing vulnerabilities.

Polls have also shown what Prest called a "high degree of frustration" among British Columbians around issues such as affordability, housing and healthcare.

"People were frustrated, but at that point the NDP (was) the best choice to deal with those issues, that no other party was offering a better alternative," Prest said. "So that's a position that is in some ways unstable for a leading party, if somebody else starts to make a genuine effort to provide a genuine alternative to the voters."

But if the polls currently point toward the provincial Conservatives as that alternative, it is not clear yet whether voters have genuinely bought what Conservatives are selling. 

"So we haven't really seen close scrutiny of the B.C. Conservatives' ideas about how they would tackle those issues," Prest said. "So while they are riding a wave of dissatisfaction ... I don't think I have seen B.C. Conservatives make a compelling case for how they would address those core challenges in a way that is superior to the B.C. NDP. "

Prest expects the NDP to sharpen its arguments and predicts the political discourse to heat up heading into September even before the official writ drops, once voters start paying more attention. 

Assuming no major changes in the polls between then and now, Prest predicts that the election between New Democrats and Conservatives will be fought and won in ridings south of the Fraser River, specifically, and more generally in areas where "towns meet cities" -- so transitional areas from rural to urban.

"If the Conservatives are able to tap into frustrations with incumbent governments in general, and the NDP in particular, if they are able to articulate a clear message about how they would do things differently and better, then they may be able to pick up enough to win a narrow victory in places like the South Fraser (region) and the outskirts of Metro Vancouver."