The provincial government recently released the first Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin for 2024, indicating that water supply in British Columbia will be affected this year.
However, it is still too early to predict whether the drought situation in 2024 will be worse than in 2023.
Peter Lee, spokesperson from the Ministry of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship, said they are monitoring precipitation closely to prepare for the upcoming drought season.
As of Jan. 1, the upper Fraser West basin is at 35 per cent of normal, upper Fraser East at 63 per cent, middle Fraser at 50 percent, and lower Fraser at 35 per cent. Normal is defined as the average snowpack level at a snow station from 1991 to 2020.
He stated that these levels are below 2023 snowpack levels, which were near or above normal. Climate and weather patterns this year have resulted in a warmer and drier winter, resulting in less snowpack accumulation across B.C.
Although snowpack is only one of many factors that contribute to drought conditions in the upcoming year, increased spring precipitation that results in snowpack accumulation will decrease the likelihood of drought in 2024.
Jonathan Boyd, river forecast hydrologist with the River Forecast Centre, said last year鈥檚 drought with its accompanying record wildfire season was 鈥減robably鈥� B.C.鈥檚 worst drought in recent memory. While not enough evidence is available yet, 鈥渃ertainly, it鈥檚 not looking in our favour right now,鈥� he said, when asked whether 2024 will be worse.
Boyd made that comment against the backdrop of figures that show the provincial snow pack as 鈥渆xtremely low鈥�, 44 per cent below normal as of Jan. 1, 2024. Twelve months ago, the overall provincial snow pack was 18 per cent below normal.
Looking at specific areas of the province, only the Stikine watershed in northwestern B.C. recorded near-normal snow pack levels as of Jan. 1. Notwithstanding three water basins without available data, the rest of the watersheds recorded below-normal levels, including the Peace River region, which saw of the worst wildfires of 2023.
The most impacted regions include Vancouver Island, the Thompson-Okanagan and large swaths of B.C. including the Lower Mainland within the watershed of the Fraser River, the Chilcotin, and parts of the Cariboo. Levels are also down in watersheds bordering Alberta.
The current figures reflect what the bulletin calls 鈥渨ell above normal鈥� temperatures for the period from Oct. 1 to Dec. 31 and 鈥渨ell below鈥� levels of precipitation for most of the province. This combination led to 15 snow stations measuring all-time lows.
鈥淭he low snow pack could significantly affect ongoing drought concerns into summer 2024,鈥� it reads.
Perhaps key here is the word 鈥榦ngoing鈥� which is to say that last year鈥檚 drought conditions might not have really ended.
Boyd said the River Forecast Centre does not typically monitor drought conditions province-wide over the winter months. But some Interior regions such as the Thompson-Okanagan experienced dry conditions, he added, noting that the Environment Canada weather station in Kamloops experienced the driest year on record.
鈥淭his means that we are still in a pretty dry pattern for the Interior and of course it shows in the low snow pack,鈥� Boyd said.
One reason for the uncertainty about what 2024 might be like lies in the fact that the snow can 鈥渟till change significantly based鈥� on upcoming weather patterns.
Looking at future water supplies for human consumption and other uses, Boyd stated the figures can be concerning for areas that rely on the snow-pack with the proviso that everything depends on location and existing infrastructure.
鈥淚t鈥檚 great that we have this report early in the season to get the heads-up that there could some challenges ahead and to keep an eye on things and to plan for the potential drought that could happen based on the weather conditions,鈥� Boyd said.
-with files Wolfgang Depner
