An October 2024 report found that Liquefied Natural Gas market is likely to be oversupplied by the end of this decade.

What this means for British Columbia is that as the province's production will ramp up, LNG production around the world will plateau according to the Carbon Tracker report, "."

In partnership with the David Suzuki Foundation (DSF) and the Pembina Institute, the research states that B.C. will not have a first-mover advantage and as a late entrant to a market dominated by lower-cost and established options, the province's proposed projects are at risk of generating lower than expected returns.

"Industry in Canada has kept repeating this mantra that the world needs clean LNG, that there's this big market for this, that B.C. is going to be very rich," said Thomas Green, senior climate policy adviser for the DSF.

"But one thing we know is, around the world, the oil and gas industry is powerful. It's well organized, pretty good at manipulating governments to get what it wants and to give away as little as possible and put the costs on society, whether that's through getting lots of fossil fuel subsidies or by leaving behind messes that will cost billions of dollars to clean up, from abandoned wells to tar sands," continued Green.

"We wanted an independent analysis that would draw on the best data available, industry data, and we'd look at how B.C's projects stack up against global competitors, and what is the likely demand. We reached out the Carbon Tracker Initiative because they help investors avoid locking into fossil fuel investments that are likely to be stranded, and help them navigate the energy transition."

"We believe that governments and First Nations should heed this latest analysis and not double down on more export capacity. That ship has sailed," said Green.

However, Alex Grzybowski, First Nations Climate Initiative (FNCI) facilitator and CEO of K鈥檜ul Power+, believes that people should not be "swayed by market predictions in a very turbulent world."

"The world has changed a lot in the past six months and will likely change a lot more in the next 10 years. The Panama Canal is in serious trouble, which increases the cost of US cargoes to Asia."

Renewable energy transition

Instead of investing more in LNG, Green stresses that now is the time to transition to renewables.

"The International Energy Agency (IEA) and others are documenting that the world is the transitioning to powering the economy largely on electricity generated from renewables because the changes in technologies over the last 15 years are just so dramatic," he said.

He notes that renewables are now are the cheapest source of new generation capacity in most markets around the world because of how quickly they can be deployed. According to the IEA, " of newly installed, utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind capacity had lower generation costs than new coal and natural gas plants" in 2023.

"If you look at how long it took Site C to be deployed, that was decades of planning, and then all this construction, huge cost overruns and now it's finally starting to generate power."

The Site C project began construction in July 2015 and it just completed its third generating unit on Feb. 24, 2025. The project is planned to have six generating units and BC Hydro estimates that it will become fully operational by fall 2025. 

"With renewables, you can really shorten that timeframe, because the technology is well known. You can buy one turbine or 100 turbines, you can buy one panel or a million panels 鈥� those things can be made factory scale. Whereas, each time you build something like a nuclear power plant, it's a one off. For all those reasons, the costs have declined dramatically."

"Canada is starting to do that to a certain degree, like investing in EV manufacturing capacity, battery manufacturing, and trying to make sure our electricity supply is cleaned up so that we can attract businesses from around the world that want to produce in a jurisdiction that offers a cleaning source of power," continued Green.

"The last thing you want to do is invest in Blockbuster Video just as everything is moving to digital."

Can LNG's emissions be curbed?

The FNCI is working with methane pyrolysis companies to utilize western Canadian LNG in a "decarbonized way," according to Grzybowski.

In methane pyrolysis, the methane molecule within natural gas is broken down into solid carbon and hydrogen by heating it. The solid carbon can be used for other purposes, such as graphite for batteries, asphalt for roads and more. The hydrogen can be turned into ammonia by combining it with nitrogen, the most common gas in the atmosphere.

Producing ammonia is important because when it is mixed with coal and burned, "the carbon footprint of the process goes down as ammonia doesn't produce GHGs," Grzybowski explained.

Green, however, is not convinced that using decarbonized LNG is the way to transition to a world powered by clean energy.

"Industry likes to say things like we're going to use this in an environmentally friendly way, but if you look at their performance on things like carbon capture and storage or methane pyrolysis, it's a small portion of their overall work."

Green notes that these technologies are not scaling at the rate the oil and gas industry is suggesting.

"We can talk about hypothetical technologies that are going to make everything better, but if the main use of it is to still burn it in furnaces or to generate electricity, most of it is going to the atmosphere."

There are four methane pyrolysis pilot projects in B.C., two of which are working with FNCI Nations 鈥� Innova Cleantech in Prince Rupert and New Wave Hydrogen in 亚洲天堂 Lake. These projects are still relatively new.

The FNCI connected with partners in Asia at COP29, including a methane pyrolysis company that is already actively doing work in Korea and Japan.

"By helping build or supporting infrastructure for things like methane pyrolysis, we're locking in the recipient countries into more fossil fuel dependency, rather than doing a direct transition to renewables," he said.

Canada was the ninth-highest emitter of methane coming from the oil and gas industry in 2023. However, it is trending in the right direction as methane emissions have steadily gone down since 2005 by a rate of 7.1 per cent.

On the other hand, a  found that globally, the oil and gas industry is leaking 30 per cent more methane than governments were reporting and in Canada, that amount is even higher. Methane leaks were approximately 50 per cent higher in Canada than reported. This study analyzed 22 months of satellite observations between May 2018 and February 2020.

Fugitive methane is a term for natural gas that has leaked due to subpar infrastructure and poor management. But that depends on whether or not the necessary regulations are implemented.

鈥淥ur decarbonized future doesn鈥檛 mean we don鈥檛 have toxic substances to manage. But if we don鈥檛 manage them well, we end up with significant environmental impacts,鈥� said Grzybowski. 

While Canada has , the IEA believes there is still room to strengthen them. The Pembina Institute, David Suzuki Foundation, Environmental Defense Fund and Clean Air Task Force submitted a  to the B.C. Energy Regulator in 2023. Among their suggestions was that equipment should be inspected monthly.

Under the proposed federal regulations, monthly inspections of all facilities are required. B.C. too will require monthly inspections beginning on Jan. 1, 2025. , however, inspections are only required at least twice a year beginning on Jan. 1, 2025. That number rises to at least three times a year on Jan. 1. 2027. Alberta has yet to disclose details on its inspection policy.

Still, Green believes that even with improved regulations, the harms of LNG outweigh the benefits.

"Liquefied natural gas is derived from fracking. You can produce it in an emissions intensive way, or in a way with fewer emissions, but when it gets shipped around the world, that stuff gets burnt, it goes into the atmosphere, it causes global warming, and it comes back and hits us in terms of extreme weather. It costs us that way," said Green.'

"Each ton of LNG that we export around the world is a net loss to society. It causes more damages than benefits, and that's something we as a society have yet to wrap our heads around."

Green compares this situation to a fast-food restaurant that serves junk food.

鈥淚t can do it in a way that reduces its impact on the local environment by filtering the grease that goes down the drain, but it鈥檚 still making junk food that鈥檚 going to harm people鈥檚 health. It鈥檚 not getting at the core of the problem.鈥�