A historic defeat for the Liberals in a downtown Toronto byelection has put a glaring question mark on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau鈥檚 political future.
Insiders warn the Conservative victory could be a sign portending a Tory blue wave when the rest of Canada goes to the polls.
Here鈥檚 a look at the options Trudeau and the Liberals face as they enter a summer of soul-searching.
Liberals look for a new saviour
It鈥檚 hard to imagine Trudeau staying until the next election, said Phillipe Fournier of 338Canada.com, which publishes a statistical model of electoral projections based on polling, demographics and elections history.
鈥淚f I may make a hockey analogy, it鈥檚 5-0 after the second period,鈥� Fournier said Tuesday.
鈥淵ou pull your goalie because it鈥檚 just getting humiliating.鈥�
While there鈥檚 a real risk that picking a new leader may not be enough to reverse the Liberals鈥� fortunes, Fournier asked: 鈥淒oes it matter?鈥�
鈥淭his is not a normal defeat,鈥� Fournier said of the byelection results. And when it comes to a general election: 鈥淭his is heading to be a historic defeat.鈥�
The Liberals may need to search for another 鈥渟aviour,鈥� he said 鈥� as Trudeau was seen when he pulled the Liberals back from historic lows after the Conservatives鈥� 2011 majority win.
But the clock is running out to stage a potential leadership race, with a federal election slated to happen no later than October 2025.
And history dictates that switching leaders doesn鈥檛 guarantee new results. Take the situation in 1993, when Kim Campbell and the erstwhile Progressive Conservatives were nearly wiped off the map after former prime minister Brian Mulroney resigned.
That year, the Liberals captured Toronto-St. Pauls. They held it until early Tuesday.
For the Conservatives, there鈥檚 hope that Trudeau sticks around, given his low popularity and the fact a Liberal leadership race would bring a push for membership sales and fundraising.
The prime minister stays and fights
As it stands, the prime minister is giving no hints he plans to follow in his late father鈥檚 footsteps and take a walk in the snow 鈥� or the sun, or the rain 鈥� anytime soon.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said Tuesday she thinks he should stay on.
And Leslie Church, the longtime political staffer who ran and lost as the Liberals鈥� candidate in the byelection, said now isn鈥檛 the time to walk away, but instead to re-earn the trust of voters.
After nearly a year of public opinion polls showing a growing appetite for change across the country, that will be easier said than done.
The Liberals need to find a way to embrace the current atmosphere of change, said Scott Reid, who worked as the director of communications for former prime minister Paul Martin.
鈥淭he government has to reconcile itself to the conclusion that if it doesn鈥檛 channel change, it will become the victim of change,鈥� he said.
鈥淏ut pretending that they鈥檙e on the right course, and pretending that all is well, and that Canadians just haven鈥檛 tuned in yet to politics (and) aren鈥檛 really thinking about their choices 鈥� that mirage has been shattered.鈥�
One point of proof, political insiders note: the byelection had unusually high turnout, especially for a summer contest.
Trudeau calls a snap election
If Trudeau felt like it, he could look across the pond to his counterparts in France and the United Kingdom for inspiration.
Both of them recently took bad results and turned them into a reason to plunge into campaign mode.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak triggered a snap election in late May after a tumultuous run for his Conservatives, who have cycled through five prime ministers over the past 14 years.
Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron shocked the nation by calling a snap election following an abysmal showing for the party in a vote by European Parliament that saw a rise in far-right parties.
Trudeau might find that Macron鈥檚 experience so far is a reason not to pull the plug, Fournier suggested.
鈥淚 haven鈥檛 seen anybody who said Macron鈥檚 idea was good.鈥�
Trudeau said Tuesday he knows his team has 鈥渕uch more work to do鈥� 鈥� and that they are committed to following through on that.
The New Democrats prepare to trigger an election
If they wanted to, the next time the House of Commons is in session, New Democrats could pull their support from the minority Liberals and vote against the government on a confidence matter, triggering an election.
But while the Liberals are reeling from their loss, the NDP also has reason to worry.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh saw his share of the vote drop to around 11 per cent in the byelection, down from the nearly 17 per cent he captured in 2021.
A longtime party operative and national director-turned-principal secretary to Singh, Anne McGrath, dismissed the need for soul-searching, saying the race was always set up to be a battle between the Liberals and Conservatives.
鈥淲e have never come in second,鈥� she said in an interview.
She also rejected the idea that it was time to consider breaking off the supply-and-confidence deal, in which the NDP votes with the Liberals on key legislation in exchange for progress on shared priorities like dental care and pharmacare.
鈥淲e鈥檙e going to be continuing to push to get those things done,鈥� she said.
鈥淎nd I will say that in any byelection where the results are different than anticipated, (it) makes every party try to figure out what that was about.鈥�
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