NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh may hold the key to trigger the next election now that he鈥檚 axed his political pact with the Liberals, but strategists say that could prove to be both an asset and a liability.
Singh put an end to the deal the Liberals have relied on since 2022 to keep their minority government from toppling, but he has not signalled plans to vote to bring down that government before the next scheduled election.
The party deliberately spread word that the end of the deal does not mean an election is looming, but that each vote would be considered on a case-by-case basis.
Singh would not take any questions after announcing the news in a video on social media Wednesday, but is expected to hold a press conference Thursday in Toronto.
The decision comes as the Conservatives lead both the Liberals and the NDP in the polls, and Singh tries to position himself as the only viable alternative to Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre.
The NDP will likely want some runway to differentiate themselves from the Liberals before the next election, said M茅lanie Richer, Singh鈥檚 former director of communications and a principal with Earnscliffe Strategies.
鈥淚 think they really need to spend the next year talking to those voters who are looking for change in a way that鈥檚 a little bit less close to the government, that shows the concrete things that they鈥檝e been able to do to make people鈥檚 lives better,鈥� she said.
The deal has accomplished most of what the NDP had demanded, including a new national dental-care program, and, from a strategic perspective, gave Singh some added credibility with voters, she said.
But while the New Democrats have won over some support from former Liberal voters, they鈥檝e also lost ground to the Conservatives, she said.
Singh may want time to offer his 鈥渧ision of change that鈥檚 very different from the Conservatives,鈥� she said.
Poilievre has won favour with working-class voters that in the past may have traditionally supported the NDP in key ridings, including in northern Ontario, said Conservative strategist Ginny Roth.
The Conservative leader is likely to continue to take aim at Singh for propping up the government, as he has for months.
Just hours after Singh said that he had pulled out of the deal, Poilievre had already called the announcement a 鈥渟tunt鈥� and challenged Singh to vote to bring down the government at the next opportunity.
鈥淭here鈥檚 an easy way for the NDP to avoid that line of attack, and that鈥檚 to either defeat the government, or to demand something from the government that the government鈥檚 not willing to give, or that will be difficult for the government to give,鈥� said Roth, who served as Poilievre鈥檚 director of communications during his leadership race.
鈥淭hey haven鈥檛 done that since 2015 and I don鈥檛 think they have any plans to.鈥�
Continuing to support the government in upcoming confidence votes could be a political risk for Singh, said Andrew Perez, a longtime Liberal and strategist with Perez Strategies.
But it鈥檚 likely less of a risk than remaining tied to the Liberals at this point, he said.
鈥淧ierre Poilievre will no doubt attack Singh as being someone that propped up Trudeau and has no credibility,鈥� he said.
鈥淚 think it will all come down to how persuasively he is able to communicate.鈥�
The political landscape was drastically different when the deal was signed in 2022.
The Liberal government had just renewed its mandate less than a year earlier. The federal government had recently declared a state of emergency after the 鈥淔reedom Convoy鈥� demonstration gridlocked downtown Ottawa and international border crossings in protest against COVID-19 restrictions. The Russian invasion of Ukraine had just begun. And Pierre Poilievre had not yet been elected leader of the Conservatives.
Throughout the last tumultuous few years, Singh has helped Trudeau hold onto the longest-serving minority government in a very long time, Perez said.
If Singh鈥檚 decision leads to an early election now, it would be a political win for Poilievre鈥檚 Conservatives, he said.
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