A study shows half of Alberta鈥檚 boreal forest could disappear in just over 80 years due to wildfires and climate change.

The research, published Monday in the journal Ecosphere, gives a glimpse at how vegetation could change based on the current rate of carbon emissions and climate change.

鈥淲e found that wildfire could initiate the conversion of approximately 50 per cent of the current boreal forest into grassland or deciduous open forest,鈥� said Diana Stralberg, who did the research as part of her PhD in the biological sciences department at the University of Alberta.

鈥淚f you look at even more extreme assumptions about future wildfire, you would get something closer to 75 per cent conversion.鈥�

The study simulated wildfire using a model from Natural Resources Canada and data from the Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute to determine what vegetation might grow back under future climates.

Marc-Andre Parisien, a fire research scientist at Natural Resources Canada, said the potential for change is strong.

鈥淭rees are very stubborn,鈥� he said. 鈥淭rees tend to want to persist and stay where they are, even though the climate in which they are living is not really suitable any more.

鈥淭o really change that vegetation type from a certain kind of forest to something else, you have to kill the trees 鈥� whether it鈥檚 a chainsaw or a fire or an insect or a flood.鈥�

Parisien, a co-author on the study, said the research looked at changes based on the potential for more wildfire in the coming years.

鈥淲e鈥檙e integrating a little bit more realism by allowing the vegetation to change after a major disturbance 鈥� in this case wildfire,鈥� he said.

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He noted that it鈥檚 already easy to find a lot of dead trees in and around Edmonton.

鈥淭he series of droughts of the 2000s have slammed so many aspen and also so many coniferous trees as well 鈥� notably white spruce, the nice trees that we have in our river valley here in Edmonton,鈥� said Parisien.

That points to the city already being in a climate that鈥檚 more associated with prairies than forests, he said.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 why trees are dying,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey just cannot get the moisture they need to persist.鈥�

The research, he said, tells the same story on a much broader scale.

鈥淭his climate that has supported forests for millenia is basically going beyond that cusp, beyond that point where it can really support trees on the uplands any more.鈥�

The changes could have major implications for the forestry sector in Alberta, said Parisien.

鈥淚f you no longer can have these productive forests on the uplands, there鈥檚 going to be a hit to this economy.鈥�

Both he and Stralberg said the changes could also have detrimental effects on wildlife, such as songbirds, and other plants.

鈥淚t鈥檚 implying pretty major changes on the landscape,鈥� said Stralberg. 鈥淚 know Albertans are really outdoor, nature-loving people and it really means a different landscape in the future.鈥�

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Colette Derworiz, The Canadian Press

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