The first session of B.C.'s 43rd Parliament opens Tuesday, (Feb. 18), with traditional rituals like the Speech from the Throne.

But the 93 MLAs meeting in Victoria next week will find that circumstances have changed significantly from those when voters first elected them almost exactly four months ago. 

The most obvious change in personnel will be the figure delivering the speech on behalf of government. Wendy Lisogar-Cocchia last month replaced Janet Austin as lieutenant-governor of B.C. Her previous background in the provincial business world personifies the economic themes likely to dominate the upcoming session.

Premier David Eby described his narrow, single-seat victory as a "near-death" experience in a December meeting with business leaders. He promised a "re-set" in their relationship, mere days after then-president-elect Donald Trump had spoken of imposing tariffs.

This threat has since become much more real. Double-digit tariffs from the United States on key exports such as energy, minerals and lumber now loom over B.C. with some potentially reaching or exceeding 50 per cent in the case of aluminum and lumber. 

"The good news is that B.C. is less exposed to the U.S. economy than most other provinces in Canada," Werner Antweiler, Chair in International Trade Policy, at UBC's Sauder School of Business, said in an interview Thursday. The most current figures show about 54 per cent of provincial exports go south of the border.

But B.C.'s lower reliance on the United States won't save it from hardship if Trump follows through on his threats. Antweiler said certain industries will struggle. 

"The lumber industry, in particular, is vulnerable," he said. "They are not very profitable at the moment and any further setback in terms of accessing the U.S. market will really hit hard. So I'm really worried about jobs in the lumber industry." 

Fewer exports not only mean fewer jobs, but also less money in the public purse, as B.C. is already facing a deficit of at least $9.5 billion.  

Tariffs already changed the political dynamic in B.C. Finance minister Brenda Bailey Thursday announced next month's budget will not include one of her government's signature election promises: a $1,000 grocery rebate for 90 per cent of households. Government also announced it has indefinitely paused new hirings in the provincial bureaucracy, except for a handful of exemptions. 

Bailey said these measures will help weather economic headwinds from the south she predicts may not calm down anytime soon.

"It will loom over the entire session," Stewart Prest, UBC political science lecturer said. "Effectively, it reframes all of our discussions from the structure and the content of the budget to particular policy initiatives."

Prest added  government will likely have to re-think various commitments made during the election campaign to compensate for potential revenue losses while supporting specific industries impacted by American tariffs.

"So these are uncertain and difficult waters," Prest said.

This focus on economics likely means some policy areas might take a back-seat. 

"It will be fascinating to see how the government deals with our ongoing commitments and investments to try to deal with changing environmental impacts and that sense of being able to respond to this year's wildfire season," Prest said. "How to balance all these different legs of the stool will be a significant challenge and not least because we are already in a deficit." 

But the threat of tariffs could also spur developments that government has previously neglected. They include efforts to finally break down barriers between provinces.

"Canada, in many ways, does not have a single economy," Prest said. "It has 10 provincial economies and an additional federal economy in other industries. So we have all kinds of overlapping or segmented areas of jurisdiction that act as a significant break on economic activity in general and internal economic trade within Canada in particular." 

While it will take a while to build up the necessary infrastructure, provincial governments actually have a lot of power to cut regulations, Antweiler said. 

"There is now a concentration of the mind on this issue. There are some barriers easier to remove than others," he said.

These promises will have to withstand the scrutiny of a brand-new Official Opposition — the Conservative Party of B.C. — under leader John Rustad who just two years ago sat as an independent with a limited public profile. 

He now heads the largest opposition caucus in B.C.'s history.

While it includes a handful of former B.C. United MLAs familiar with legislature, most Conservatives MLAs are rookies. This likely means  it will take the caucus some time to get fully comfortable with the legislature's day-to-day mechanics. But the party's campaign suggests it sees itself as a critic of the status quo and as a vehicle for a new kind of conservatism. 

Prest said the polarization seen in the United States around issues like diversity and inclusion also inform politics in British Columbia.

"There will likely be increasing resistance to what they in the United States call DEI initiatives," Prest said. "So I would not be surprised to hear that call echoed, by for the instance, the B.C. Conservatives, given that they do seem to be more likely to amplify the sense that (Trump) has valid concerns. So I would not be surprised if we see a polarized fault line emerge around those issues and I would not be surprised to see the NDP and the Conservatives both decline to back down." 

In other words, things could get raucous.