The spotlight will be on Gobbler鈥檚 Knob in western Pennsylvania early Friday morning, when handlers of a groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil will announce whether he saw his own shadow and predicts six more weeks of winter or an early spring.

Thousands are expected to attend that exploded in popularity after the 1993 Bill Murray movie, 鈥淕roundhog Day.鈥�

It鈥檚 part of a tradition rooted in European agricultural life, marking the midpoint between the shortest day of the year on the winter solstice and the . It鈥檚 also a time of year that figures in the Celtic calendar and the Christian holiday of Candlemas.

And in eastern and central Pennsylvania, where people of German descent have been watching the groundhog鈥檚 annual emergence from hibernation for centuries, there鈥檚 a tradition of groundhog clubs and celebrations that are independent of Phil.

Some dismiss the Punxsutawney event as , which they say forecast more accurate weather predictions. There have been weather-predicting groundhogs in at least 28 U.S. states and Canadian provinces, and less formal celebrations far and wide.

One thing it鈥檚 not: serious business.

鈥淲e know this is silly; we know this is fun,鈥� said Marcy Galando, executive director of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. 鈥淲e want people to come here with a sense of humor.鈥�

WHAT ARE THE HOLIDAY鈥橲 ORIGINS?

Celtic people across Europe marked the four days that are midway between the winter solstice, the spring equinox, the summer solstice and the fall equinox. What the Celts called Imbolc is also around when Christians celebrate Candlemas, timed to Joseph and Mary鈥檚 presentation of Jesus at the Temple in Jerusalem.

Ancient people would watch the sun, stars and animal behavior to guide farming practices and other decisions, and the practice of watching an animal鈥檚 emergence from winter hibernation to forecast weather has roots in a similar German tradition involving badgers or bears. Pennsylvania Germans apparently substituted the groundhog, endemic to the eastern and midwestern United States.

Historians have found a reference in an 1841 diary to groundhog weather forecasts in early February among families of German descent in Morgantown, Pennsylvania, according to the late Don Yoder, a University of Pennsylvania professor whose 2003 book about Groundhog Day explored the Celtic connection.

Yoder concluded the festival has roots in 鈥渁ncient, undoubtedly prehistoric, weather lore.鈥�

WHY IS IT CELEBRATED IN PUNXSUTAWNEY?

Punxsutawney is an area that Pennsylvania Germans settled 鈥� and in the late 1880s started celebrating the holiday by picnicking, hunting and eating groundhogs.

Members of Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, organized in 1899, care for Phil at a customized space beside Punxsutawney Memorial Library 鈥� where there鈥檚 a window with a view into the creature鈥檚 burrow.

The Punxsutawney groundhog makes predictions but he鈥檚 not always predictable. The designated groundhog emerged before sunrise in 1929 and didn鈥檛 come out until late afternoon in 1941.

The Bill Murray movie caused such a resurgence of interest that two years after it came out, event organizers voiced concern about rowdy crowds drinking all night, people climbing trees and others stripping to their underwear. In 1998, a groundhog club leader wearing a $4,000 groundhog suit reported being assaulted by a half-dozen young men.

Alcohol is now prohibited at Gobbler鈥檚 Knob, Phil鈥檚 spot some 80 miles (123 kilometers) northeast of Pittsburgh.

DOES PHIL HAVE ANY COMPETITION?

The early festivities in Punxsutawney were followed in 1907 by folks in Quarryville, a farming area in Lancaster County in Pennsylvania鈥檚 southeastern corner. The roughly 240 members of the Slumbering Groundhog Lodge there report the winter forecast from Octoraro Orphie, or least via his well-preserved remains.

Quarryville lodge board chair Charlie Hart said the organization has dinners and other social events throughout the year but is largely focused on Groundhog Day.

Hart credits Orphie as a far better forecaster than Phil.

鈥淥ctoraro Orphie has never been wrong,鈥� Hart said. 鈥淭his is the 116th year, and in the previous 115 he has been right on the money every year.鈥�

WHISTLE PIGS ON THE MENU?

The groundhog is a member of the squirrel family and related to chipmunks and prairie dogs. It鈥檚 also known as a woodchuck, a whistle pig 鈥� or in the parlance of Pennsylvania Dutch, a language with German roots, a 鈥済rundsau.鈥�

Groundhogs are herbivores that are themselves edible to humans, although they are not widely consumed. Their lifespan in the wild is typically two or three years.

The Pennsylvania Game Commission says about 36,000 hunters reported killing more than 200,000 groundhogs last year.

Game Commission spokesperson Travis Lau found groundhog a bit stinky to clean, with thick skin.

鈥淚t was actually really good, no doubt about it 鈥� and to my taste, more like beef than venison is,鈥� Lau said. 鈥淭he whole family ate it and liked it, and everybody had apprehensions.鈥�

Some cooks advise groundhogs are best taken when they are young and after clover is in bloom, since a clover diet is thought to improve the meat鈥檚 taste.

WHEN DID CLUBS AND LODGES SPRING UP?

Starting in the 1930s, groundhog lodges opened in eastern Pennsylvania. They were social clubs with similarities to Freemasonry.

Intended to preserve Pennsylvania German culture and traditions, clubs would sometimes fine those who were caught speaking anything but their Pennsylvania Dutch language at meetings. They were traditionally all-male groups and 15 such clubs remain active.

They all share the unifying feature of a groundhog鈥檚 weather prognostication, said William W. Donner, a Kutztown University anthropology professor and author of 鈥淪erious Nonsense,鈥� a book about such lodges and other efforts to preserve German heritage.

鈥淚 think it鈥檚 just one of these traditional rituals that people enjoy participating in, that maybe take them away from modern life for 15 minutes,鈥� Donner said.

WILL PHIL GET IT RIGHT THIS YEAR?

Some well-meaning efforts have sought to determine Phil鈥檚 accuracy, but what 鈥渟ix weeks of winter鈥� means is debatable. Claims that a groundhog has or has not seen its shadow 鈥� and that it鈥檚 able to communicate that to a human 鈥� are also fair territory for skeptics and the humor impaired.

By all accounts, Phil predicts more winter far more often than he predicts an early spring.

Groundhogs are mostly solitary creatures who start to emerge in midwinter to find a mate. The science behind whether they can make any accurate weather predictions is problematic at best.

Among the skeptics is the National Centers for Environmental Information, within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The government agency last year with U.S. national temperatures over the prior decade and concluded he was right only 40% of the time.

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