Humanity is hitting the upper limit of life expectancy, according to a new study.
Advances in medical technology and genetic research 鈥� not to mention larger numbers of people making it to age 100 鈥� are not not translating into marked jumps in lifespan overall, according to researchers who found shrinking longevity increases in countries with the longest-living populations.
鈥淲e have to recognize there鈥檚 a limit鈥� and perhaps reassess assumptions about when people should retire and how much money they鈥檒l need to live out their lives, said S. Jay Olshansky, a University of Illinois-Chicago researcher who was lead author of published Monday by the journal Nature Aging.
Mark Hayward, a University of Texas researcher not involved in the study, called it 鈥渁 valuable addition to the mortality literature.鈥�
鈥淲e are reaching a plateau鈥� in life expectancy, he agreed. It鈥檚 always possible some breakthrough could push survival to greater heights, 鈥渂ut we don鈥檛 have that now,鈥� Hayward said.
What is life expectancy?
Life expectancy is an estimate of the average number of years a baby born in a given year might expect to live, assuming death rates at that time hold constant. It is one of the world鈥檚 most important health measures, but it is also imperfect: It is a snapshot estimate that cannot account for deadly pandemics, miracle cures or other unforeseen developments that might kill or save millions of people.
In the new research, Olshansky and his research partners tracked life expectancy estimates for the years 1990 to 2019, drawn from a administered by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. The researchers focused on eight of the places in the world where people live the longest 鈥� Australia, France, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain and Switzerland.
The U.S. doesn鈥檛 even rank in the top 40. But is also was included 鈥渂ecause we live here鈥� and because of past, bold estimates that might surge dramatically in this century, Olshansky said.
Who lives the longest?
Women continue to live longer than men and life expectancy improvements are still occurring 鈥� but at a slowing pace, the researchers found. In 1990, the average amount of improvement was about 2 1/2 years per decade. In the 2010s, it was 1 1/2 years 鈥� and almost zero in the U.S.
The U.S. is more problematic because it is harder hit by a range of issues that kill people even before they hit old age, including drug overdoses, shootings, obesity and inequities that make it hard for some people to get sufficient medical care.
But in one calculation, the researchers estimated what would happen in all nine places if all deaths before age 50 were eliminated. The increase at best was still only 1 1/2 years, Olshansky said.
Eileen Crimmins, a University of Southern California gerontology expert, said in an email that she agrees with the study鈥檚 findings. She added: 鈥淔or me personally, the most important issue is the dismal and declining relative position of the United States.鈥�
Why life expectancy may not be able to rise forever
The study suggests that there鈥檚 a limit to how long most people live, and we鈥檝e about hit it, Olshansky said.
鈥淲e鈥檙e squeezing less and less life out of these life-extending technologies. And the reason is, aging gets in the way,鈥� he said.
It may seem common to hear of a person living to 100 鈥� former U.S. President Jimmy Carter last week. In 2019, a little over 2% of Americans made it to 100, compared with about 5% in Japan and 9% in Hong Kong, Olshansky said.
It鈥檚 likely that the ranks of centenarians will grow in the decades ahead, experts say, but that鈥檚 because of population growth. The percentage of people hitting 100 will remain limited, likely with fewer than 15% of women and 5% of men making it that long in most countries, Olshansky said.
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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute鈥檚 Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
Mike Stobbe, The Associated Press
